In recent discussions on the Kings of War forums, the always-astute TastyBagel asked whether we had seen my predicted uptick in Abyssal Dwarf armies in tournaments. I’ve argued that these buffs would lead to a surge in their popularity and performance. The incredible Nick Williams maintains kowmasters.com, which has extensive data about UK tournaments, including who played which factions and how they performed. He has data from many years, but for this analysis, I pulled all of the 2023 season, and then the data from the first part of 2024. Let’s dive into the data to see how the Abyssal Dwarfs have fared and how their rise compares to other factions.
Analyzing the Popularity Surge
When examining the popularity of factions, I looked at two key metrics:
- The percentage of total games played by a faction (so if a tournament has 10 players, and two are Faction A, then Faction A has a score of 20%).
- The percentage of total players who have used the faction at least once. (so if 150 people competed in the 2023 year, and 15 of them played Faction A, then Faction A has a 10% score).
These two numbers give a good sense of which factions are making it to the table. I pulled data from Nick’s site and looked at which factions have seen changes from 2023 to 2024. You can see the full table here:
Let’s start with the Abyssal Dwarfs:
Abyssal Dwarfs - Times Played
2023: 4.6%
2024: 6.0%
Change: 30.2% increase
Abyssal Dwarfs - Number of Players
2023: 3.6%
2024: 4.1%
Change: 12.8% increase
The percentage of games played by Abyssal Dwarfs increased significantly, confirming that more players are choosing them more often. This 30.2% increase is a substantial jump and suggests that the buffs have made Abyssal Dwarfs a more competitive and appealing choice. In addition, we've seen an almost 13% increase in the percentage of players who are playing Abyssal Dwarfs, which does suggest the uptick is widespread.
Performance Analysis: Podium Placements
Another critical aspect of faction performance is how often they end up on the podium (1st, 2nd, or 3rd place).
Abyssal Dwarfs - Podiums
2023: 16.7%
2024: 25.0%
Change: 50.0% increase
This metric looks as the percentage of podiums compared to overall times played. In 2023, the Abyssal Dwarfs were on the podium 8/48 (16.7%). So far in 2024, they're 5/20 (25%), which is a marked increase from where they were before.
Comparing Across Factions
It’s also insightful to see how other factions have performed to get a full picture of the shifting meta. Here are a few highlights:
Northern Alliance
Times Played: 6.2% (2023) to 9.5% (2024) - 53.8% increase
Players: 5.9% (2023) to 10.0% (2024) - 71.1% increase
Podium Rate: 7.7% (2023) to 18.8% (2024) - 143.7% increase
Did the Tom Robinson starter pack from his UK Clash-winning list jumpstart interest in the Northern Alliance? The buffed Pack Hunters combined with a new speed 10 flyer makes this an interesting list to experiment with. Could that be driving the significant increases?
Kingdoms of Men
Times Played: 1.6% (2023) to 5.4% (2024) - 230.8% increase
Players: 1.4% (2023) to 5.0% (2024) - 254.5% increase
Podium Rate: 29.4% (2023) to 33.3% (2024) - 13.3% increase
If you follow Death by Dragons (and you should), you’d know he’s built out a Kingdoms of Men list. Is this the new craze that he’s single-handedly leading over in the UK?
Twilight Kin
Times Played: 0.8% (2023) to 3.6% (2024) - 368.8% increase
Players: 0.8% (2023) to 2.7% (2024) - 238.4% increase
Podium Rate: 37.5% (2023) to 33.3% (2024) - 11.1% decrease
As expected with the rework, the Twilight Kin have roared back on the scene and are doing well. Will this settle out once people figure out how to reliably beat the lists? Or will this number continue to increase for awhile as people finish their army projects? Interestingly, despite TK being more popular, their overall podium rate has decreased after the army list changes. Is the Fanatics meltdown perhaps overblown?
Conclusion
The data from the 2024 season so far underscores the impact of the recent buffs to the Abyssal Dwarfs. This nuanced view highlights the importance of not just looking at raw popularity but also understanding performance metrics to get a complete picture. Note that this is still a small data set, and we'll have more info as 2024 unfolds (unless you really think the Orcs 600% increase in podium rate is indicative of an underlying trend . . .).
This data is pulled from KOWMasters.com. It's the English-only scene, so it isn't reflecting data outside of the UK, but it's a fantastic data set with good info from tournaments across the entire UK.
For those interested in further analysis, I’ve previously discussed the potential rise of the Abyssal Dwarfs in depth. Check out my earlier blog posts for a more detailed look at the changes and my predictions.
If you have any questions or thoughts on these findings, join the conversation on the KoW forums here. What do you think? Which factions are you seeing more in your area? Is the UK scene representative of what is occurring around the world?
