The Impact of the 2HW Upgrade in Kings of War

The Impact of the 2HW Upgrade in Kings of War

In a recent discussion on the Kings of War forum, TastyBagel raised an intriguing question: Does it make sense to use the 2HW upgrade? This question is particularly pertinent given the latest updates in the Clash of Kings 2024 ruleset. To offer a comprehensive answer, I conducted a detailed combat simulation analysis, building on my previous studies that you can read about in this blog post.

For this analysis, I specifically examined the following units:

• Abyssal Dwarf Blacksouls (Troop, Regiment, Horde)
• Elven Palace Guard (Troop, Regiment, Horde)
• Northern Alliance Dwarf Clan Warriors (Regiment)
• Forces of the Abyss Lower Abyssals (Troop, Regiment, Horde)

Methodology

For CoK 2024, I ran an extensive series of combat simulations to evaluate the effectiveness of various unit upgrades, including the 2HW upgrade. Here's a summary of the methodology:

• Simulation Environment: A custom-built Python combat simulator.
• Number of Simulations: 1.25 million combats.
• Key Simulation Features:
  • Initiative and Randomization: Generally, faster units strike first, with a randomizing factor introduced to mimic real-life unpredictability.
  • Terrain Effects: 30% of simulations included varied terrain to account for environmental impacts.
• Special Rules Included: Blast, Brutal, Cloak of Death, Crushing Strength, Dread, Elite, Fury, Headstrong, Iron Resolve, Lifeleech, Pathfinder, Phalanx, Piercing, Radiance of Life, Regeneration, Shattering, Stealthy, Strider, Thunderous Charge, Vicious.

Elo Rating System

The Elo rating system was used to calculate the relative skill levels of units based on their performance in simulated combat. This system involves:

• Initial Rating: Each unit started with a baseline Elo rating.
• Rating Adjustments: Ratings were updated based on combat outcomes, with points added or subtracted depending on whether units won, lost, or drew, and how unexpected the results were.
• Expectation Calculation: Outcomes were predicted based on current ratings, with adjustments reflecting surprise victories or defeats.
• Effectiveness Determination: Evaluating the ratio between cost and Elo to determine unit cost-effectiveness.

Results: 2HW Upgrade Analysis

After running 1.25 million more simulations specifically to analyze the 2HW upgrade, we observed the following:

Simulation Data Table

To provide a clearer picture of the impact of the 2HW upgrade, here's a table summarizing the simulation results for the units analyzed. The table shows the change in Elo rating for each unit type (Troop, Regiment, Horde) with and without the 2HW upgrade.

Simulation Data Table

Discussion of Results

Troop Level

• Abyssal Dwarf Blacksouls: The Elo rating drops significantly from -4460 to -5080 with the 2HW upgrade. This indicates that the upgrade drastically reduces their effectiveness, likely due to increased vulnerability.
• Elven Palace Guard: The Elo rating sees a slight increase from -3061 to -3042, which is effectively noise given the sample size.
• Lower Abyssals: The Elo rating also decreases from -4811 to -4919.

Regiment Level

• Abyssal Dwarf Blacksouls: The Elo rating drops from -1764 to -2235 with the 2HW upgrade. This suggests that while the upgrade increases damage potential, the loss of defense outweighs the benefits.
• Elven Palace Guard: The Elo rating remains almost unchanged from -616 to -610, indicating a negligible effect of the 2HW upgrade at the regiment level.
• Northern Alliance Dwarf Clan Warriors: The rating decreases from -2424 to -2558.
• Forces of the Abyss Lower Abyssals: The Elo rating drops from -1633 to -1822.

Horde Level

• Abyssal Dwarf Blacksouls: The Elo rating increases from 1208 to 1463, demonstrating a positive impact from the 2HW upgrade.
• Elven Palace Guard: The Palace Guard's rating improves from 1770 to 1991.
• Forces of the Abyss Lower Abyssals: The Elo rating rises from 1302 to 1678.

Strategic Insights

Based on these findings, here are some strategic recommendations:

Strategic Recommendations

• Hordes: Strongly consider the 2HW upgrade as it significantly boosts their combat effectiveness. The increased damage output outweighs the defensive trade-off, especially given their higher resilience. For example, Abyssal Dwarf Blacksouls and Elven Palace Guard see substantial Elo rating increases with the 2HW upgrade.
• Regiments: The decision is more nuanced. While the Elo ratings for some units like Elven Palace Guard remain almost unchanged, others such as Abyssal Dwarf Blacksouls and Forces of the Abyss Lower Abyssals experience a drop in effectiveness with the 2HW upgrade. If your playstyle involves protecting regiments with chaff or you need additional damage dealers, the upgrade might be worthwhile. Otherwise, the reduced defense could make them too vulnerable.
• Troops: Avoid the 2HW upgrade. The loss in defense makes troops significantly less effective, as evidenced by the drastic drops in Elo ratings for units like Abyssal Dwarf Blacksouls and Forces of the Abyss Lower Abyssals. They are more likely to be eliminated before making a meaningful impact.

Conclusion

The 2HW upgrade in Kings of War presents a mixed bag of benefits and drawbacks, heavily influenced by unit size and battlefield strategy. For hordes, the upgrade is a clear asset, enhancing their offensive capabilities without compromising their survivability too drastically. Regiments require a more careful consideration, balancing the need for increased damage against the risk of reduced defense. Troops, however, generally suffer from the upgrade, becoming too fragile to justify the added hitting power.

For a deeper dive into the calculations and broader context of unit effectiveness in Kings of War, you can refer to my previous blog post on combat simulations and Elo ratings.

Feel free to share your thoughts and experiences with the 2HW upgrade in the comments below. Your feedback and insights are invaluable as we continue to explore the intricate dynamics of Kings of War.