Decoding Unit Efficiency in Kings of War: A Dual-Method Analysis 

In the tactical and strategic realm of Kings of War, discerning the true efficiency of units can provide a significant edge in gameplay. This analysis ventures deep into the data, aiming to reveal which units offer the most value for their points cost. Drawing from an extensive dataset of 1.25 million combat simulations, I've employed two distinct but complementary approaches to evaluate unit performance.

Methodology:

• Elo per Point Analysis:
  • Our first metric, 'Elo per Point', is a direct measure that divides a unit's Elo rating by its points cost. This simple yet effective ratio offers an immediate sense of how much 'bang for your buck' each unit provides on the battlefield.
  • In this analysis, we pinpoint the top five most cost-effective units across various size categories. These standout units demonstrate superior efficiency, delivering greater tactical value per point.
  • It's important to note that Elo ratings do not account for the tactical dynamics of getting a unit into combat. For example, comparing a large-based legion with other unit types may not always be a direct apples-to-apples comparison.
• Regression Model Analysis:
  • The second method employs a regression model, analyzing the 'Elo Difference'—the disparity between a unit's actual Elo rating and the rating predicted by the model based on cost and size.
  • This approach helps identify units that are performing above or below the expected level, considering their cost and size. It's a more nuanced method that reveals not just cost-effectiveness but also the relative strength or weakness of units within their respective categories.

By applying these two methods, we gain insights from slightly different perspectives, with some overlap. Together, they provide a comprehensive understanding of unit performance in Kings of War, enabling players to make informed decisions in army building and gameplay strategy.

(Some units show up in multiple lists and have slightly different values. That stems from the randomness of the 1.25 million simulations; don't read too much into those variances).

Method 1: Elo per Point

Troops

Regiments

Hordes

Legions

War Engines

Monsters

Titans

Method 2: Regression Modeling

While understanding the cost-effectiveness of units in Kings of War is crucial, analyzing their performance relative to expectations offers a deeper strategic insight. In this part, I focus on a regression analysis that evaluates units based on their Elo_Difference – a metric indicating whether a unit performs better or worse than expected for its cost and size.

Methodology:

The regression model was developed using the Elo ratings, cost (Pts), and unit size as variables. This model helps predict the expected Elo rating for a unit based on its cost and size. The Elo_Difference is then calculated as the actual Elo rating minus the predicted Elo rating from the model. A positive Elo_Difference suggests that a unit is performing better than expected (potentially overpowered), while a negative value indicates underperformance (potentially underpowered). Here are the five most overpowered units in each of the respective categories based on this regression model:

Troops

• Paladin Monster Slayers, The Order of the Brothermark, 1485.5
• Immortal Guard, Abyssal Dwarfs, 1458.1
• Ancients, Salamanders, 1326.9
• Immortal Guard, Ratkin Slaves, 1318.1
• Ironguard, Dwarfs, 1306.5

Regiments

• Immortal Guard, Abyssal Dwarfs, 1297.0
• Immortal Guard, Ratkin Slaves, 1216.0
• Lesser Obsidian Golems, Abyssal Dwarfs, 1030.3
• Impalers, Twilight Kin, 1028.0
• Paladin Monster Slayers, The Order of the Brothermark, 995.4

Hordes

• Skeleton Warriors, Empire of Dust, 1313.8
• Lower Abyssals, Forces of the Abyss, 1193.6
• Skeleton Warriors, Undead, 1083.8
• Dogs of War, League of Rhordia, 1045.0
• Blacksouls, Ratkin Slaves, 1016.9

Legions

• Draugr, Varangur, 674.9
• Militia Mob, Kingdoms of Men, 649.8
• Villein Penitents, The Order of the Brothermark, 591.1
• Zombies, Undead, 570.6
• Scarecrows, Nightstalkers, 540.9

War Engines

• Flame Belcher, Dwarfs, 1354.4
• Ironbelcher Organ Gun, Dwarfs, 1255.4
• Volley Gun, League of Rhordia, 1218.2
• Bolt Thrower, Sylvan Kin, 1141.2
• Volley Gun, Halflings, 1062.8

Monsters

• Reanimated Behemoth, Empire of Dust, 1263.9
• Greater Water Elemental, Forces of Nature, 1075.7
• Greater Water Elemental, The Order of the Green Lady, 1060.7
• Greater Water Elemental, Trident Realm of Neritica, 1004.7
• Greater Fire Elemental, Forces of Nature, 959.1

Titans

• Revenant on Undead Great Burrowing Wyrm, Undead, 838.4
• Revenant on Undead Great Burrowing Wyrm, Empire of Dust, 810.4
• Goblin Slasher, Goblins, 677.6
• Greater Earth Elemental, The Herd, 672.1
• Greater Earth Elemental, Forces of Nature, 646.1

Again, remember that this list considers only a subset of the special rules, so units with more special rules and synergies will underperform. Also, base size significantly impacts ability to get the unit in combat. That said, hopefully these two ways of looking at unit effectiveness will give you a starting point on what units to use in your list building.